It's never the break-in, it's always the cover up.

Récemment, Warren Kinsella a écrit:

It's never the break-in, it's always the cover up.

(Ce n'est pas tout à fait vrai mais c'est très loin d'être tout à fait faux.)

Ceci m'y a fait repenser.

If Frist didn’t do anything wrong, why can’t he be honest about what he knew?

Message aux commentateurs politiques

Selon la critique de Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, de l'auteur Philip Tetlock, parue dans la dernière édition de la revue The New Yorker:

People who make prediction their business—people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables—are no better than the rest of us (at predicting). When they’re wrong, they’re rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. (...) Tetlock claims that the better known and more frequently quoted they are, the less reliable their guesses about the future are likely to be. The accuracy of an expert’s predictions actually has an inverse relationship to his or her self-confidence, renown, and, beyond a certain point, depth of knowledge. People who follow current events by reading the papers and newsmagazines regularly can guess what is likely to happen about as accurately as the specialists whom the papers quote.

Les gaffes de l'année

Fineman PR, une agence de relations publiques basée à San Francisco, présente depuis maintenant onze ans sa liste des pires gaffes de relations publiques réalisées au cours de la dernière année. Les "gagnants" de cette année, avec mes commentaires, sont:

1. Tom Cruise. Pour avoir fait dérailler la campagne de relations publiques pour le film War of the Worlds, avoir fait un fou de lui avec son "amour" pour Katie Holmes et avoir viré son attaché de presse (pour engager sa propre sœur pour jouer le même rôle).

2. Le télévangéliste chrétien Pat Robertson. Pour avoir suggéré que l'administration américaine fasse assassiner le président du Venezuela, Hugo Chavez.

3. Le président du syndicat (basé à Détroit, capitale américaine de l'automobile) des United Auto Workers, Ron Gettelfinger. Pour avoir interdit aux Marines américains qui s'entraînent près de son bureau de se stationner dans le stationnement si ceux-ci conduisaient des autos construites à l'étranger ou s'ils avaient des autocollants pro-Bush.

4. L'entreprise, spécialisée dans le domaine des programmes de gestion des bénéfices pour les employés, Benefit Management Administrators. Pour ne pas avoir donné le bénéfice du doute à une de ses employés. Elle avait été mise à la porte, notamment, pour avoir été en retard la journée où elle avait accompagné son mari qui partait pour l'Irak.

5. Le président de l'Université Harvard, Larry Summers. Pour avoir dit que c'est génétique si les femmes sont inférieures aux hommes en mathématiques et en sciences.

6. Les forces armées américaines. Pour avoir acheté des "articles" dans les médias irakiens. Un peu comme des publi-reportages sans la mention. Ils sont supposés être en faveur de principes démocratiques...

7. Rockstar Games, concepteurs du jeu vidéo Grand Theft Auto, San Andreas. Pour avoir inséré des images porno cachées dans son jeu.

8. Merck, le fabricant du Vioxx. Pour avoir caché des résultats de tests indiquant que les patients prenant du Vioxx couraient des risques accrus de crise cardiaque, entraînant une poursuite de 18 milliards $ (US).

9. Snapple. Pour avoir fait mis un Mr. Freeze de 16 000 kilos au beau milieu de Union Square à New York le 21 juin, première journée de l'été. Deux morceaux de robot pour celui ou celle qui devine ce qui s'est passé. La une du NY Daily News le 22 juin: "Gooing, Gooing, Gone."

10. La National Academy of Sciences. Pour avoir publié un article expliquant avec moult détails comment des terroristes pourraient empoisonner des milliers de personnes en mettant des substances toxiques dans le lait.

Le communiqué de presse est ici.

Federal election (day 14)

Where they were and what they said:

* Stephen Harper promised a tax credit for young athletes in Buckingham, Quebec. “Government needs to give working families a break,” Harper said. “We need to help families so that cost is not a barrier to keeping children active.” Points for health. Points for taxes. Points for families. Very good proposal.

* Gilles Duceppe explained his agriculture policy.
He also came out in favour of the LNI in the debate about the Liberal ads inspired by the Quebec improv group. Backstory on that is here.

* Jack Layton "announced the NDP’s plan to improve child care in Canada and measures to fight child poverty."

In other news:

* Scott Reid's comment about "beer and popcorn" has been blogged about at least 125 times according to Technorati.

* Revolutionary Moderation's Gaffe-o-Meter puts the Liberals in front. (That's not a good thing for them.)

* Latest SES-CPAC rolling poll (completed Sunday) tells us that Conservatives are down by 1%, all others unchanged. Liberals' lead now at 8%.

Technorati tag: canada election

Federal election (day 13)

Where they were and what they said:

* Gilles Duceppe was in Gatineau yesterday and went all Gomery-ish. I'm pretty sure it's the first time he talked about it in any major way since the beginning of the campaign (if you exclude Day 1).

* Jack Layton signed the Workers' Bill of Rights (PDF file) in Ottawa. It's been pushed by the National Union of Public and General Employees and the United Food and Commercial Workers Union.

In other news:

* CTV did a thing about how the campaign in tough on reporters. Well boo-hoo-hoo.

* Scott Reid and John Duffy (two Liberal spinners) put their foot deep into their own mouths. Beer and popcorn, guys? Why not cigarettes, beer and drugs while you're at it?

* Latest SES-CPAC rolling poll (completed Saturday) tells us that Conservatives and the Bloc rose by 2%, NDP down 1%, Libs and Green unchanged. Liberals' lead down to 7%.

* Latest Ipsos-Reid gives us Libs at 34% (+1% in the past week), Conservatives at 30% (-1%), NDP at 16% (-1%), the Bloc at 14 per cent (unchanged), and the Greens at 5% (unchanged). Bloc numbers for Quebec only: 55%.

Technorati tag: canada election

Federal election (day 12)

Where they were and what they said:

* Gilles Duceppe was in Lebel-sur-Quevillon early in the day where Domtar is closing two paper mills. The TV clips ("We'll never abandon you") were just the right tone. You wanted to believe him. Later, he visited Kitcisakik, an Algonquin community that has no running water nor electricity (despite behing relatively near a huge hydroelectric dam). Duceppe is believed to be the first political leader to visit, ever.

* Stephen Harper pledged $50 million per year to the Canadian Strategy for Cancer Control and got kicked for his efforts:
"That looked tough but I get that from the media every day," Harper quipped.
Last night, he was in Mississauga, introduced by Ontario Conservative party leader, John Tory (you can't invent this stuff) to present his GTA program. He also used the occasion to laud Jean Charest (attempting to drive a wedge between federal and provincial liberals in Quebec, maybe?)

* In the words of quasi-comic Michel Beaudry in Le Journal de Montréal, "Layton and Martin each gained one percentage point yesterday; they took the day off." (Ka-tching.)

In other news:

* Sheila Copps doesn't like Paul Martin.

* McGill University Observatory on Media and Public Policy reports daily on the tone of the newspaper coverage during the election. In a nutshell, The Liberals get the most coverage. Tone of articles covering the Conservatives is less negative that those covering Liberals. Tone of those covering Martin is less negative that of Harper.

* The NDP researched the "ordinary Canadians" in the Liberals' ads. Turns out they're not.

* Latest SES-CPAC rolling poll (taken Friday) tells us that Conservatives rose by 4%, NDP down 35%, Libs down 2%, Bloc and Green unchanged. Liberals' lead down to 9%.

Technorati tag: canada election

Est-ce que votre profession est appréciée?

Gallup demande aux Américains d'évaluer, sur une échelle de 1 à 5, l'honnêteté et l'éthique dans 21 professions différentes. Dans l'ordre, suivi du résultat en pourcentage :

Infirmières 82
Pharmaciens 67
Médecins 65
Professeurs au secondaire 64
Policiers 61
Clergé 54
Directeurs de pompes funèbres 44
Banquiers 41
Comptables 39
Journalistes 28
Courtiers en immobilier 20
Entrepreneurs en construction immobilière 20
Avocats 18
Dirigeants syndicaux 16
Sénateurs 16
Dirigeants d'entreprises 16
Courtiers en valeurs mobilières 16
Congressistes 14
Publicitaires 11
Vendeurs de voitures 8
Vendeurs téléphoniques (telemarketers) 7

Plus de détails dans Editor & Publisher

Federal election (day 11)

Yesterday, Stephen Harper promised to raise the pension income amount from $1,000 to $2,500 per year (a conservative classic) and to create a "Seniors Council" to advise the minister responsible for seniors (which certainly isn't; aren't they in favour of less bureaucratic structures, not more?)

Paul Martin used Bill Clinton as a prop. (Something tells me Bill didn't like that all that much.) The PM's strategy seems to be to try to move left, not by attacking the NDP, but by attacking über-rightie George Bush.

Gilles Duceppe is being taken to task for saying that he wants at least 50% of the votes in Quebec. Considering that he got 48.8% last time around, that's only saying that he wants to better his party's score. Isn't that, like, a good thing?


Jack Layton made it into the news today for saying that we should stop sending troops to Afghanistan, then by reversing that slightly.

The latest CPAC-SES nightly tracking poll (completed December 8, 2005) has the Libs going up 1% and all others staying unchanged.

And lastly, a picture:



Technorati tag: canada election

Federal election (day 10)

OK, so I skipped a day. Sue me.

What happened yesterday?

* Paul Martin announced a five-point plan including a ban on all handguns. Considering the gun registry scandal, I don't how much this is going to help them politically. Even more so when, and Harper and Layton have a point here, it's the crime that's the problem, not the gun itself.
* This is double bad news for Layton. 1) He should be in front of this issue and no one else. 2) Toronto mayor David Miller, a long-time New Democrat, joins Buzz Hargrove, of the Canadian Autoworkers, and Ken Georgetti, of the Canadian Labour Congress, in applauding the Liberals: "I could not think of a more important announcement for the people of Toronto than the banning of handguns."

And on a lighter note:

* Rick Mercer sums up the first week of the campaign from the PM's viewpoint.

Technorati tag: canada election

Polytechnique

Hier, c'était le 16ème anniversaire de la tuerie de la Polytechnique.

Le 6 décembre 1989; je m'en souviendrai toujours.

Primo, j'étais à L'Après-Cours, le bar de l'UQAM quand Marc Lépine est entré à la Polytechnique. Évidemment, RDI et LCN n'existant pas, le DJ met la radio à CJMS et on écoute le déroulement de l'opération policière.

En se disant (erronément) que ç'aurait pu être nous.

Ce n'est que le lendemain que l'on a appris que toutes les victimes de Lépine étaient des jeunes femmes et que sa haine des femmes était ce qui motivait son geste. Ce n'aurait pas pu être moi, mais ça aurait pu être mes collègues féminines, mes amies.

Ensuite, dans les jours suivants, deux choses se sont produites.

Premièrement, je me suis demandé, comme plusieurs de mes amis masculins, qu'est-ce que j'aurais fait? Aurais-je réagi? (Autrement qu'en me jetant sous une table.)

Deuxièmement, il y a eu une sorte de climat accusatoire de tous les jeunes hommes. Nous étions tous, soit des Marc Lépine, soit des pleutres.

Secundo, j'ai eu l'honneur d'être le responsable des communications pour la commémoration du 10ème anniversaire de la tuerie de Polytechnique. C'est feue Thérèse Daviau (que j'avais connue en politique municipale) qui m'avait recommandé. Elle avait perdu sa fille Geneviève dans cette tuerie. Je lui serai toujours reconnaissant de son geste. Le fait que j'aie été un homme n'a pas penché dans sa balance.

J'ai eu l'occasion de voir de proche comment les amis et les familles des quatorze victimes vivaient cet anniversaire. Comment ils et elles (elles surtout) avaient travaillé fort au cours des dix années précédentes pour surmonter leur deuil et pour faire en sorte que leurs filles (blondes, soeurs, etc.) ne soient pas oubliées.

Elles s'appelaient Geneviève Bergeron, Hélène Colgan, Nathalie Croteau, Barbara Daigneault, Anne-Marie Edward, Maud Haviernick, Barbara Klucznik, Widajewicz, Maryse Laganière, Maryse Leclair, Anne-Marie Lemay, Sonia Pelletier, Michèle Richard, Annie St-Arneault et Annie Turcotte.

Juste un mot sur le fait que Jack Layton était à la cérémonie d'hier. Extrait d'un article sur cyberpresse.ca:

Parc du 6 décembre. La cérémonie commémorant la tragédie de Polytechnique, où 14 jeunes femmes ont perdu la vie en 1989, vient de se terminer.
(...)
Contrairement à la ministre Liza Frulla, également présente, le chef néo-démocrate quitte les lieux, l'air grave, refusant de parler aux journalistes. M. Layton était ici à titre personnel, répète son entourage, pendant que le cliquetis des caméras résonne autour de lui.

"Je garde le silence, a-t-il dit, sans son sourire caractéristique. Cette journée est celle des femmes qui nous parlent de la violence des hommes."

Il avait exactement le bon ton. Et dans son cas, on ne peut pas parler de récupération politique. J'ai connu M. Layton en 1999 à l'occasion du 10ème anniversaire. Son engagement dans ce domaine n'est pas nouveau.

Excellente ressource pour de l'information sur la campagne électorale fédérale

C'est ici. Il y a notamment une page traitant de tous les sondages publiés à ce jour. Et une autre qui offre des prévisions de résultats en fonction de trois différente formules de calcul. Très intéressant.

C'est mis en ligne par un dénommé David MacDonald.

Merci à Murky View pour le lien.

Technorati tag: canada election

Federal election (day 8)

• Libs finally deliver an election promise (on child care; how's that for reacting?) and it dominates the news.
• What was Harper talking about yesterday? Oh yeah, fisheries.
• It seems that the Liberals think they are right in pacing themselves and that Harper might "burn people out" with his daily announcements. "OK, it isn't that we don't have ideas, it isn't that we've been caught flat-footed by the Conservative strategy, it's that this is a long campaign and we're going to keep our powder dry." OK, whatever.
• Whole bunch of numbers in this Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for the National Post, CanWest News Service and Global National.

Why hasn't Harper had a bigger boost after dominating the news in the first week? Maybe because it's only been a week?

Allan Gregg, head of the Strategic Counsel, says it better: "There's a sheen of cynicism that coats all political attitudes and people are very savvy to the extent that they think what happens in a campaign is that politicians are doing those things to curry favour. But if I was advising him (Heraper), I'd say, 'We just gotta keep on doing it.'" Anyways, both Harper and Partin need makeovers he says.

I think quotes like "This is just like a caucus meeting, by the way" delivered while making his child-care funding announcement at a sometimes-raucous day-care centre in Ottawa or his reply that "Let me just say -- take it as you will -- you look no different than usual" to Paul Wells's question about if he (Paul) looked weird to him (Stephen) through the teleprompter screen, will go a long way in humanizing Harper. (Although the teleprompter has to go.)

Technorati tag: canada election

Oh, how I would like to be in Paris (2)

It looks like it was an interesting conference at Les Blogs. There was one major problem the first night: not enough beer at the Edelman party.

A few Quebecers were there.

I totally agree with Mena Trott that civility is too often absent in the blogosphere.

Flikr a maintenant 3503 photos avec le tag "lesblogs".

Technorati tag: lesblogs

Federal election (day 7)

• The Conservatives again launched a major policy plank early in the morning forcing everyone else to react to them. I really like that strategy. This time it was child care. The PM has to react.
• Oh for the love of God! Duceppe apologizes. Lapierre doesn't. Paul Martin says it's OK with him since the Bloc is narrow minded. At least, Bernie Farber, head of the Canadian Jewish Congress agrees with me.
• Rick Mercer has a funny picture of Jack Layton's bus on his blog.
• The Bloc radio ads are here (one per day).
• The most recent CPAC/SES rolling poll (the one completed Dec. 4) has Liberals and Bloc down by 1%, the Conservatives and NDP up by 1%, the Greens unchanged and the undecided up by 1%. Results are here (PDF).

Technorati tag: canada election

Oh, how I would like to be in Paris

There's a conference called Les Blogs going on today and tomorrow. Here are Loïc Le Meur's opening remarks. All the info for the conferene is on the wiki.

Technorati tag: lesblogs

Federal election (day 6)

• Jean, take a chill pill. Saying that Duceppe's words had "a little Nazi-like tone to them" is greatly and grossly exagerated. And it's only Day 6.
• Paul Martin came out from his vacation to buy a wreath. Two days off after only four days is a bit much, no?
• An Angus-Reid rolling poll was published over the weekend. Short story: Conservatives up, Libs and NDP down, Bloc and Green unchanged.

Technorati tag: canada election

Federal election (day 5)

Saturday was a quiet day on the electoral front.

• Paul Martin took a break. One presumes/hopes his staff didn't.
• Stephen Harper went right again with his proposals concerning his party's "criminal justice agenda with promises of mandatory prison sentences, stiffer fines and an end of conditional sentences."
• Capitalizing on the fact that the United Nations' conference on climate change is happening in Montreal this week, Gilles Duceppe announced the Bloc would donate $25 for each tonne of greenhouse gases emitted by the campaign buses and planes that the campaign will use (about $8 per 100 kilometres the campaign travels by bus and $2.75 to $4.50 per passenger for each 1,000 km travelled by plane) to the environmental group Unisfera. He obviously invited leaders of the other parties to do the same. It'll work out to a few thousand dollars total. A great investment! Even provicial Liberal Environment minister Thomas Mulclair applauded Duceppe's move.

On another note:

• It seems the journalists following the Liberals are thinking of calling their plane the Mayday.

Federal election (day 4)

• Good day for the Liberals: Buzz Hargrove almost endorsed them. "This minority government, deserves to go back to Ottawa with even bigger numbers," he said. Keyword: minority. Some 280,000 members that support Liberals in ridings that don't have a chance of electing NDPers is good news for Paul Martin.
• It's also very bad news for Jack Layton who's been saying that Canadians shouldn't vote Liberal to help stop the Conservatives. "Don't waste your vote on the Liberals," he said yesterday morning in Regina.
• Ordinary day for the Conservatives. I don't think that Canadians are going to believe that politicians are going "to reduce waiting times for medical treatment." Particularly not federal politicians. Particularly not when their support of a universal, free and public health systen has been doubted in the past.

On another (lighter) note:

• Revolutionary Moderation has a Gaffe-o-Meter online. Rules and a recap from the preding election are here. Funny.
• There's a tradition where the journalists name the campaign plane (or bus, for the Bloc). Those following the NDP are leaning towards Been Thair, because the first couple of events are errily similar to events in the 2004 campaign. For the Conservative plane, two names have chosen, Je Ne Sais Quoi fAIRe (for when travelling in Quebec) and Mr. Happy's Flying Circus (for the rest of Canada)

What, Me Worry?

"What, Me Worry?" C'est que disait Alfred E. Neuman dans la revue Mad.

C'est aussi une référence du sous-titre du commentaire de Daniel Henninger, éditeur adjoint du Wall Street Journal. d'aujourd'hui. (C'est un des articles gratuit du journal.)

Quelques citations:

Prior to this week (...), senior staffers at both the White House and Defense have privately vented frustration and even bitterness at the absence or incompetence of what is known as the war's "public diplomacy." (...)

This is the Alfred E. Neuman, "What, me worry?" school of public relations. It doesn't seem quite appropriate for a major war.

I don't think the Bushies are numb to seeing their public standing dissed and downgraded. I think they've concluded this is a game that's rigged against them, something over which they have little control. (...)

In contrast, the Bush media model has been to ignore the polls, skip the spin and govern for results. (...)

For this White House, the mainstream media's spin is like bad weather--uncontrollable. (...)

The Bush administration has underestimated the changed nature of modern media. The mainstream media alone is not the problem. All these political subjects--the war, immigration--get discussed at length, all the time, on talk shows and across the great expanses of the Web wilderness. In this new environment, the emotional content has become stronger and even more important than the facts, such as they are. (...)

Commençons en disant que la phrase "Bush media model has been to ignore the polls, skip the spin and govern for results" est fausse. "Ignore the polls", peut-être. Le reste, faux.

Bon, il y a quand même quelques enseignements là-dedans.

Primo, si on ne se définit pas, les autres (nos adversaires) vont le faire pour nous. On ne peut pas les laisser définir ce que l'on est. Il faut le faire soit même. Il faut amener le débat là où il est le plus intéressant pour nous.

Secundo, les "mainstream media" ne sont pas les seuls médias. Et dans le nouvel environnement médiatique, le ton est aussi important, sinon plus, que le contenu.

À réfléchir.

Federal election (day 3)

• Wow. Lowering the GST from 7% to 5% is a bold early-election promise. It certainly brings the debate on the Conservative's turf. I was sure that they would limit themselves to Gomery-isms for the first week. Hmmm, could they do better than expected? We'll see. Politically, it's a winner.
• Ralph Goodale came out swinging claiming (falsely) that reducing the GST favours the rich. Paul Martin once claimed in an April 9, 1990 press release that "the GST is a "regressive and unfair tax lon living, which will harm the economy by squeezing consumer buying power creating an administrative nightmare for small businesses." So? Which one is it?
• Gilles Duceppe wants Quebec-born sport stars to play in international competition for Quebec, not for Canada. I'm presuming we're going to start with hockey . Oh, I see he wants a Quebec national teams in soccer too. Seriously, I think this is going to backfire. I can't imagine that a single person will switch their vote to the Bloc on this issue (and that's the goal; pun intended) and some people might be turned away by the over-the-top-ness of the idea. The Habs are hosting the Sabres tonight; I imagine a lot of guys'll be getting asked what they think about it.
• Today, Paul Martin was in Cornwall. Yesterday, Domtar announced that more than 900 of their Cornwall-based employees would be laid off. Talk about bad luck! Anyways, the Libs changed the schedule around to get the mayor to meet the PM. They forgot to incite the union reps who showed up anyways. Eck. Another bad day.