Publicité: Mauvaises nouvelles pour les médias traditionnels. Bonnes nouvelles pour Internet.

Le New York Times nous apprend que l'augmentation des dépenses publicitaires relentira en 2007 au États-Unis:

Most forecasters are predicting growth in ad spending in the United States next year of 2 to 5 percent over 2006. That would represent a decline from the rate of growth in ad spending this year compared with 2005, which is expected to finish in the range of 3 to 6 percent. But it is not bad considering that 2007 will be missing two major events that help administer a hypodermic to ad budgets in even-numbered years: Olympics and national elections.

Donc croissance. Mais moindre. Pour les médias traditionnels

Sauf que...

“The trend that will continue to affect the media universe in 2007 is the ongoing shift in advertising dollars from traditional media into nontraditional media, most notably the Internet,” Fitch Ratings concluded in an outlook report.

Robert Coen, whose agency is part of the McCann Worldgroup unit of the Interpublic Group of Companies, predicted that ad spending on the four largest national broadcast television networks would increase just 3 percent next year from 2006. In contrast, ad spending by national advertisers on the Internet will grow five times as fast, at 15 percent, Mr. Coen said. (Les publicités sur les moteurs de recherche ne sont pas inclus dans ce chiffre.)

Steve King, worldwide chief executive at ZenithOptimedia, part of the Publicis Groupe offered a prediction that Internet ad spending next year would grow 29 percent from 2006 (incluant les moteurs de recherche). By comparison, Mr. King offered forecasts for many traditional media for percentage gains in low single digits like 1.5 percent for local radio and 2 percent for newspapers.

Donc croissance. Mais accélérée. Pour Internet.